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Notes on digital agriculture, predictive modeling, machine learning and R. Written for my future self and anyone stuck on the same problem.

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2026

November 10, 2026Likelihood vs Prediction Accuracy in Mixed ModelsA higher REML log-likelihood does not guarantee more accurate predictions. We show why with simulated trials, where the true genetic values are known, and a small, transparent REML oracle written in base R.Predictive modeling · 53 min read

2025

May 5, 2025Smoothers in the Field: GAMs for Capturing Treatment Effects and Spatial Trends in Plant Breeding TrialsHow Generalized Additive Models can model spatial trends and estimate genotype effects in plant breeding trials, compared side by side with a classical ASReml spatial model.Predictive modeling · 14 min read